Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25

The rapid growth in low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite deployments over the past five years has underscored the urgent need for accurate monitoring and reentry prediction to mitigate risks of orbital collisions and debris impacts. LEO satellites operate within the upper atmosphere, where atmospheric drag significantly influences their orbits, shortening lifespans and raising collision risks—especially during geomagnetic storms. In this study, we analyze the effects of geomagnetic activity on the reentries of 523 Starlink satellites between 2020 and 2024, a period aligned with the rising phase of solar cycle 25, which is proving more intense than its predecessor. Using two-line element (TLE) tracking data, we derive satellite altitudes and velocities and apply a superposed epoch analysis—the first of its kind using such a large, homogeneous satellite group. Despite TLE limitations, our findings clearly demonstrate that heightened geomagnetic activity accelerates reentry due to increased atmospheric drag. Furthermore, reentry prediction errors, defined as discrepancies between actual and forecasted reentry epochs at reference altitudes, also increase with geomagnetic intensity. These results highlight the profound influence of the current solar cycle’s heightened activity on LEO satellite dynamics, marking a pivotal moment in orbital drag research as both solar activity and satellite numbers reach record highs.