Modeling Thermospheric Responses to Acoustic-Gravity Waves Generated by Isolated Thunderstorms

Acoustic-Gravity Waves (AGWs), a type of atmospheric gravity wave, play key roles in transporting energy and momentum throughout the atmosphere. AGWs have numerous sources—including thunderstorms, natural hazards, and flow over topography—that are found over the Continental United States (CONUS). Each source produces AGWs with distinct signatures. Thunderstorms and isolated convective sources typically produce concentric or semi-concentric patterns in imaging data (Heale et al., 2019) with high occurrence frequency at midlatitudes (Perwitasari et al., 2016; Hoffmann and Alexander, 2010). AGWs above sources are routinely seen in mapped GNSS TEC data and airglow imaging (Azeem et al., 2015, and references therein). The Atmospheric Waves Experiment (AWE) mission explores the effects of AGWs on Earth’s space weather as they propagate through the upper atmosphere. AWE’s Advanced Mesospheric Temperature Mapper (AMTM), installed on the International Space Station, captures nighttime images to produce temperature maps of AGWs near the mesopause region using airglow data (Space Dynamics Laboratory, 2025). Likewise, the S-RAID (System for Rapid Analysis of Ionospheric Dynamics) dataset reveals extensive signatures of thermospheric AGWs in GNSS TEC over CONUS (Inchin et al., 2025), including time periods concurrent with the AWE Mission.

Here we use AWE and GNSS TEC data of various events over CONUS as a basis to specify and interpret simulations of AGWs in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere using a 3D numerical model. Based on the Model for Acoustic-Gravity wave Interactions and Coupling (e.g., Heale et al., 2014; Zettergren and Snively, 2015), it is used in “MAGIC Forest” form (Snively and Calhoun, AGU FM, 2021). Thunderstorm source parameters are determined on an approximate basis to replicate common source characteristics (Heale et al., 2020, and references therein). For a more accurate simulation, NEXRAD data can be used to produce dynamic backgrounds for the duration of each thunderstorm event. For the static ambient environment, empirical models (Drob et al., 2015; Emmert et al, 2022) are used. We examine wave scales in temperature and airglow in the thermosphere and perform analyses to assess wave amplitude, wavelength, and speeds (e.g., Heale et al., 2014). Events under different ambient conditions are investigated and compared with available data that describe wave spectra and anisotropy in azimuth from the source, due to wind fields and thermospheric temperatures associated with different solar activity, similar to as addressed by Heale et al., (2020) for waves in different seasons.