The Impact of Solar Radiance Uncertainty on Mass Density Predictability

Accurately forecasting thermosphere mass density is critical to a wide range of space-based operations, from satellite drag estimation to collision avoidance and reentry trajectory planning. As one of the most operationally valuable states, mass density is not independent but controlled within the ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere (ITM) system, while uncertainties in the system could reduce mass density prediction reliability. Therefore, it is necessary not to study the prediction of mass density in isolation, but to consider it as part of a whole system. In this study, we focus on the effect of precondition differences caused by solar radiation on mass density during geomagnetic storms. Based on TIEGCM, by adjusting the solar radiance parameter F10.7, we generate ensembles with different preconditions before the magnetic storm, and then use the real magnetic storm parameters to simulate the atmospheric changes during this period. This study reveals that different background preconditions can lead to variations in mass density under the same geomagnetic storm conditions.