Investigating Short-Term Tidal Variability in the ITM Region Using Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

Understanding short-term tidal variability in the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere (ITM) region is crucial for improving space weather predictions. This study explores the causal impact of the DE3 120 tide, solar flux, and geomagnetic activity on the DE3 400 tide, as well as the DW1 120 tide, solar flux, and geomagnetic activity on the DW1 400 tide. Using Bayesian structural time series models, we analyze the dynamic causal relationships between these tidal components. Our findings reveal that the causal impacts exhibit both seasonal and annual patterns, highlighting key temporal variations in the ITM region.