Forecasting Equatorial F Region Instabilities using WAM-IPE

A regional simulation was used to reproduce ionospheric irregularities in the equatorial F-region ionosphere associated with equatorial spread F (ESF) events. The simulation was first initialized and forced using measurements from the Jicamarca Radio Observatory during the nights from 29 August, 2022 to 31 August, 2022. Next, initialization and forcing were specified using parameters from the Whole Atmosphere Model – Ionosphere, Plasmasphere, Electrodynamics (WAM-IPE) model. Runs conducted under the former conditions correctly reproduced the presence or absence of irregularities. However, results for 29 August, 2022, failed to predict irregularity development when WAM-IPE background electric fields drove the simulation. The observed and simulated prereversal enhancements (PRE) of the vertical plasma drifts were seen to differ significantly. The disagreement prompts an investigation into the dynamo computations in WAM-IPE, the generation of electric fields, and the PRE in particular.