Uncertainty quantification of the ionospheric conditions with the WAM-IPE model for varying solar wind parameters

Equatorial and low latitude ionospheric electron density irregularities are one of the most common space weather phenomena in the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system, which can seriously impact radio propagation in the ionosphere. Quantifying the uncertainty in the high-resolution ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) model is important to make probabilistic predictions of the ionospheric irregularities.
In this study, we will estimate the uncertainties of the IT conditions simulated by the coupled Whole Atmosphere Model-Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (WAM-IPE) forecast system for varying solar wind parameters. The historical data of solar wind density, speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are collected to generate synthetic data to drive the model by using the advanced variational autoencoder (VAE). High scalable multi-fidelity and multi-level uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are then applied to the high-resolution WAM-IPE to improve the prediction accuracy of WAM-IPE.
We will present the uncertainties of plasma drifts, neutral winds, and electron density simulated by the model and analyze the most important drivers that contribute most to the variances during quiet and storm conditions. In the next step, we will further explore the uncertainties of the IT system associated with the tides propagating up from the lower atmosphere. Special attention will be paid to the results over Jicamarca, Peru (11.95°S, 76.9°W) where large number of historical observations of ionospheric irregularities are available. This study will be helpful to find the most important drivers that are responsible for the generation and development of ionospheric irregularities.