2016 Workshop: GEM CEDAR Modeling Challenge

Geospace and Ionosphere/thermosphere research is increasingly relying on numerical simulations. Model coupling is heavily utilized to advance our understanding of the connection between the magnetosphere and ionosphere/thermosphere. The GEM and CEDAR communities has recognized that due to the maturity and increasing complexity of state-of-the-art space science and space weather models and coupled model chains, there is a great need for a systematic and quantitative assessment of different modeling approaches. For example, there is a need to understand and quantify how thermosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere model coupling affect the model performance and model-data agreements. There is a need for performance tracking tools as well as the detailed feedback necessary to improve models. There is a challenge to identify and quantify physical phenomena in data and in models and to define an approach to measure model-data and model-model agreements. There is an even bigger challenge to find the way to quantify knowledge and understanding. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations is a key element of the Research-to-Operations transition problem. There is a need to understand which aspects of spatial and temporal characteristics of space environment parameters are the most important for specific research or space weather forecasting and analysis applications.

In recognition that model validation is a challenging research task CEDAR and GEM communities initiated GEM GGCM (in 2008) and CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (in 2009) Model Validation Challenges. The CEDAR-GEM Model Validation Challenge, built upon GEM GGCM (2008) and CEDAR ETI (2009) Challenges was initiated during the previous Joint GEM-CEDAR Workshop in 2011. The CEDAR-GEM Model Validation Challenges is focusing on physical parameters, spatial domains and aspects of model validation of interest to both communities. The Community Coordinating Modeling Center (CCMC) is supporting the Modeling Challenges and maintaining a web site with interactive access to model output archive and observational data used for metrics studies.

Over the years since the Joint CEDAR-GEM 2011 Workshop the CEDAR-GEM Challenge energized collaboration between GEM and CEDAR communities and interaction between research and operation communities in developing metrics for space weather models. Challenge activities led to a number of joint publications. The CEDAR-GEM Challenge demonstrated the value of systematic and coordinated model validation projects and paved the way for community-coordinated model validation activities.

The GEM Focus Group of Modeling Methods and Validation (MM&V) which begins this summer has made Ionospheric Conductance one of their key initiatives and will also use this session to define and begin their Ionospheric Conductance Challenge. The MM&V Focus Group is interested in addressing the challenges and potential pitfalls of conductance observations and modeling, related parameters (e.g. particle precipitation), as well as feedback effects with magnetospheric processes.